Electrifying the Hawaiian Economy – What Will It Take?
After 3 years of collaboration with the Geological Survey of Finland’s Dr. Simon Michaux, our co-authored report, Assessment of the Scope of Tasks to Completely Phase out Fossil Fuels in Hawaiʻi, has been released for stakeholder review. This report aims to establish a baseline model for how much electrical power would be required to electrify the Hawaii economy without fossil energy.
This work intends to stimulate meaningful dialogue on achieving this objective and inspire effective decision-making.
Analysis Approach
To achieve this, all significant aspects of economic activity in the State of Hawaiʻi were examined and mapped using the state’s officially reported data for 2019. This year was selected as it was the last year before the COVID-19 pandemic supply chain disruptions, making 2019 the most recent, well-reported calendar year that represented typical economic operations.
The economic areas mapped ranged from commerce, trade, power consumption, petroleum consumption, electricity generation, and the various natural and geographical resources available across the principal Hawaiian Islands. These can potentially impact the State’s clean, renewable electrification goals.
Using total energy consumption data reported by the State of Hawaiʻi, the work performed by Hawaii’s transport fleet in 2019 was calculated. The work scope evaluated included motorcycles, passenger cars, buses, trucks, domestic maritime shipping, and aviation.
Finally, several non-fossil fuel solutions were evaluated, each representing the implementation of an energy system scenario deemed feasible within the Hawaiian ecosystem.
Boundary Conditions
The first four scenarios were designed as “Boundary Conditions.” These are intentionally extreme applications of power generation technologies applied to the entire Hawaii economy, with the implications noted. Each condition includes specific boundaries, contexts, and assumptions.
Scenario 1 - The electrification of all sectors using non-fossil fuel power generation systems.
Scenario 2 - The powering of all end-use systems with ‘green’ hydrogen.
Scenario 3 - Electricity generation using biomass and biofuels (biodiesel and ethanol for all existing Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) technologies.
Scenario 4 - All internal combustion engine technology powered with ammonia.
The electrical power required for each scenario was modeled within the context of available non-fossil fuel power generation systems. These included solar PV and wind turbines (each with battery backup storage), hydroelectricity, biomass-fueled Combined Heat and Power (CHP), modern nuclear power, geothermal energy, and ocean energy systems.
The report also considers two additional boundary conditions: end-of-life resource management and food production methodology. These were examined and presented as components of anticipated necessary societal paradigm shifts.
Scenario 5 - The first examined what a Circular Economy would look like in Hawai’i, including the infrastructure required to recycle renewable energy systems and the quantity of valuable materials that may be recovered.
Scenario 6 - The food production boundary condition examined the dynamics of Regenerative Permaculture as a method of providing energy (food) for humans and domesticated animals. It explored what Hawai’i would need to source its food locally while employing natural life-cycle processes to support productive yields.
Hybrid Scenarios
These scenarios were not intended to be the basis for real-world implementation but rather to provide boundary-condition data to explore possible ‘hybrid’ solutions, where different technologies were deployed at varying degrees within the broader energy production/consumption paradigm—this established efficiencies within specific end-use purposes.
All hybrid scenarios considered electrical power demand, installed power generation capacity, and infrastructure efficiencies. They even considered the requirements for arable and non-arable land areas. The three hybrid scenarios serve as examples that consumers of this report can use to create their own.
Hybrid Scenario 1 - The first hybrid scenario is modeled on the ‘Green Transition’, defined by the International Energy Agency (IEA). This currently serves as the global model for phasing out fossil fuel use. This scenario incorporated as many Green Transition parameters as possible while considering Hawaiʻi’s existing regulatory framework.
Hybrid Scenario 2 - The second hybrid scenario was also designed to model the Green Transition, but it involved a change in the regulatory framework that would permit the deployment of state-of-the-art nuclear power stations and the expansion of geothermal energy.
Hybrid Scenario 3 - The third hybrid scenario explores the energy requirements of a Hawaiian economy that is mainly supported by local resources. Conditions that could lead to this range from a voluntary masterplan based on an awareness that local food production and internal economic efficiency are important public policies to one where the supply of imports (maritime and aviation) significantly contracted or was disrupted for extended periods. This suggests a 40% smaller economy and a significantly reduced energy footprint.
A final scenario—Purple Transition—was included. It proposes deploying several unorthodox technologies to phase out fossil fuels while performing the same tasks and work as required by the 2019 Hawaiian economy. This approach allowed for a mix of technologies designed to mitigate some of the challenges or limitations presented by each one while ensuring the production of the required power. Core to its operating system are five non-commercial technologies, four of which are over 50 years old and are now being commercialized. The technologies include:
Thorium-fueled liquid fission Generation IV MSR power generation,
Iron powder metal fuel for high-heat industrials,
Battery chemistries other than lithium-ion,
Ammonia-fueled internal combustion engines
Pyrolysis of human sewage as an energy feedstock.
No one technology solves all challenges, whether in Hawaiʻi or elsewhere. Integrating these technologies into one dynamic, interacting system makes their use more efficient and impactful than historically experienced as stand-alone solutions.
Next Steps
The final report will be published shortly and shared with government and business leaders and our community. We expect that it will stimulate the discussions that will enable the decisions necessary for Hawaiʻi to achieve a truly sustainable and resilient society.